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This page is updated every three hours2024-03-28
- The state of capitalism
by michael roberts in Michael Roberts Blog, 2024-03-28 10:10:04 UTCThe book, The State of Capitalism, is an ambitious work. Written by the NAMe Collective with the lead from Professor Costas Lapavitsas from SOAS University, London, it seeks to analyse all aspects of capitalism in the 21 st century from a Marxist perspective. It has been widely praised by the likes of Yanis Varoufakis and Grace Blakeley, leading rock stars of leftist economics. According to the authors, the book “is the outcome of collective writing that combines different types of knowledge and experience, while still finding a common voice. For several years, the European Research [...]
2024-03-11
- Two definitions of bubbles
by ? in Econlog, 2024-03-11 03:14:53 UTCIn a recent post , I pointed out that how we define words doesn’t matter when considering substantive issues. Thus whether addition is defined as a mental illness should have no bearing on how we treat addiction. An old Noah Smith Bloomberg column reminds me of how definitions can lead us astray. Smith points out that (in 2018) Bitcoin prices had recently crashed, after previously soaring to a peak of $19,000. He acknowledges that Bitcoin prices might boom again in the future, but nonetheless defines this as a “bubble”: But for ordinary investors, who don’t tend to get in early on potentiall [...]
2024-03-06
- Japanâs Self-Inflicted Decline
by Daniel Gros in Project Syndicate, 2024-03-06 16:03:34 UTCMILAN – Japan should be doing well. It boasts a well-educated and disciplined workforce, and outdoes most other industrialized countries on both investment and spending on research and development . In fact, at 3.3% of GDP, Japanese R&D expenditure was higher even than that of the United States until recently. And yet, Japan’s relative decline continues. In the 1980s and 1990s, Japan was the world’s second-largest economy, not least because of its seemingly unbeatable industrial sector. Today, however, it is the world’s fourth-largest economy, with data showing that it recently fell behind G [...]
2024-02-25
- WTO ministerial trading in low expectations and high stakes
by Ken Heydon in East Asia Forum, 2024-02-25 11:00:00 UTCThe World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) 13th Ministerial Conference takes place in Abu Dhabi on 26–29 February. It is expected to include a deal providing transparency and predictability in electronic commerce, endorse an agreement on investment facilitation for development and admit two least developed countries, Timor Leste and the Comoros, as WTO members. Though welcome, these are modest expectations. This is particularly so given the promises from the 12th Ministerial Conference — tackling fisheries subsidies and offering the hope of restoring a ‘ fully functioning dispute settl [...]
2024-02-22
- The paradox of empowerment: gender norms and intimate partner violence in PNG
by Alexander Smith in Development Policy Blog, 2024-02-22 19:00:32 UTCIntimate partner violence (IPV) is a global scourge, with nearly one in three women experiencing violence at the hands of a partner at least once in their lifetime. Rates of violence are particularly high in PNG, where the prevalence rate is one in two women. How do we change this? It is tempting to think that improving the disparity in resources or economic status between women and their partners would be an effective mechanism to reduce financial dependence and improve women’s ability to leave violent relationships. This logic is known as the household bargaining theory. It proposes that ind [...]
2024-02-16
- How AI deepfakes threaten the 2024 elections
by Rehan Mirza in Journalist's Resource, 2024-02-16 18:41:26 UTCFacebook Twitter LinkedIn Reddit Email Last month, a robocall impersonating U.S. President Joe Biden went out to New Hampshire voters, advising them not to vote in the state’s presidential primary election. The voice, generated by artificial intelligence, sounded quite real. “Save your vote for the November election,” the voice stated, falsely asserting that a vote in the primary would prevent voters from being able to participate in the November general election. The robocall incident reflects a growing concern that generative AI will make it cheaper and easier to spread misin [...]
2024-02-14
- Pakistanâs Middle-Class Rage Against Military Rule
by Adeel Malik in Project Syndicate, 2024-02-14 16:05:43 UTCOXFORD – Pakistan’s general election on February 8, marred by allegations of widespread voting irregularities, resulted in a hung parliament and the formation of a coalition government consisting of the country’s two major dynastic parties. Nevertheless, the outcome represents a stunning defeat for the country’s powerful military, as candidates backed by the imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan ’s Tehreek-e-Insaf Party (PTI) secured more parliamentary seats than any other political bloc despite a two-year crackdown on its voters and supporters. Although PTI did not win enough seats t [...]
- A Negative Income Tax, One Step at a Time
by Ed Dolan in Ed Dolan's Econ Blog, 2024-02-14 14:52:00 UTCThe negative income tax (NIT) sometimes seems like the carbon tax of social policy. Both are irresistibly appealing to economists and have long pedigrees. Both are supported by blindingly persuasive logic. Yet neither policy seems capable of mustering much political support in 21st-century Washington politics. I see two things as essential in repackaging the NIT for today’s America. The first essential is to recognize the reality of path dependency — the need to start from where we are, not from a clean slate, and take things one step at a time. Gerald Gaus calls that approach “exploring the [...]
2024-02-01
- Saving for college
by ? in FRED blog, 2024-02-01 14:00:00 UTCThe FRED Blog has discussed the income and wealth boosts from graduating college (a.k.a. the college premium ). This premium does seem to justify the expense of a college education, and today we discuss how to pay for it by using a 529 saving plan. 529 plans are named after the section of the federal tax code that rules their treatment. The FRED graph above shows data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System reporting the dollar value of savings held in two types of 529 plans: College saving plans (the blue area): These are purchased shares in mutual funds administered by st [...]
2024-01-11
- Are Things Really that Bad?
by noreply@blogger.com (Michael Ward) in Managerial Econ, 2024-01-11 17:31:00 UTCBinsbergen, Bryzgalova, Mukhopadhyay, and Sharma develop an index of economic sentiment for the US (and individual states) from accumulated news reports. They use a historical collection of 170 years of digitized newspapers, which includes the text of 200 million newspaper pages from 13,000 local newspapers, collecting instances of a bunch of keywords like "profitable", "success", "opportunity" versus "failure", "insolvent", or "unsuccessful". It turns out it predicts economic activity quite well. � � � � � � However, the authors also note that sentiment trends downward significantly over the [...]
2024-01-10
- ASSA 2024 part two â the radical sessions: imperialism, profitability and climate change
by michael roberts in Michael Roberts Blog, 2024-01-10 09:40:41 UTCWithin the huge ASSA meeting, there are sessions organized by heterodox economics associations, in particular, by the Union of Radical Political Economics (URPE) . Attendance at these sessions is small, but the quality of the papers is large. Let me start with annual David Gordon lecture hosted by URPE at ASSA every year. Each year, a leading radical economist gives a lecture on a subject of choice. This year, David McNally gave the 25 th lecture on Marx on Colonization: The End of Capital and the Beginning of a Journey . David McNally has contributed a Marxist perspective on many impo [...]
2024-01-01
- Child Penalty amid Korea's Declining Fertility
by jisoohwang@snu.ac.kr (Jisoo Hwang) in Asia Economics Blog, 2024-01-01 09:26:51 UTCCo-author: Inkyung Yoo. With the gender gap in educational attainment narrowing, “child penalty” – the effect of parenthood on labor market outcomes – is considered the largest remaining obstacle in eliminating the gender pay gap in developed countries. Recent studies show that women’s earnings drop significantly following first childbirth whereas men’s earnings remain largely unaffected. Various policies are being discussed and studied with the goal of reducing the child penalty. However, from an individual woman's perspective, there is a sure way to avoid the child penalty – to not have a [...]
2023-12-28
- Annual Review 2023
by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2023-12-28 05:49:00 UTCI've been doing these annual reviews since 2011. They're mainly an exercise for me to see what I accomplished and what I didn't in the previous year. The big new development this year is that together with Johannes Sauer and Eric Yu Sheng I took on the joint editor-in-chief role of the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics . My goal, apart from the usual ones of increasing the impact, prestige, and outreach of the journal, is to get more environmental and resource economics papers published in the journal. So, if you have a suitable paper, please send it to us! We started [...]
2023-12-21
- Research Review | 21 DEC 2023 | Portfolio Design & Risk Factors
by James Picerno in The Capital Spectator, 2023-12-21 12:12:07 UTCFactor Zoo (.zip) Alexander Swade (Lancaster University) et al. October 2023 The number of factors allegedly driving the cross-section of stock returns has grown steadily over time. We explore how much this ‘factor zoo’ can be compressed, focusing on explaining the available alpha rather than the covariance matrix of factor returns. Our findings indicate that about 15 factors are enough to span the entire factor zoo. This evidence suggests that many factors are redundant but also that merely using a handful of factors, as in common asset pricing models, is insufficient. While the selected fact [...]
2023-12-18
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Florida Is Shunning the People Who Helped Build It
by Fiona Harrigan in Hit & Run blog, 2023-12-18 11:00:23 UTCIn 1980, Florida experienced an immigration restrictionist's worst nightmare: a huge, rapid, and unauthorized influx of largely unskilled migrants. That event was the Mariel boatlift , a mass migration that followed Cuban dictator Fidel Castro's April 1980 announcement that Cubans wishing to leave the country could do so. In just six months, 125,000 Cuban immigrants arrived in Florida, half of them settling in Miami. "Observers in Miami at the time of the Boatlift noted the strain caused by the Mariel immigration," wrote Uni [...]
2023-12-15
- Health Capacity to Work among Older Malaysians
by dpark@adb.org (Donghyun Park) in Asia Economics Blog, 2023-12-15 11:00:10 UTCCo-authors: Norma Mansor; Halimah Awang Malaysia is experiencing a demographic transition characterized by a steady increase in the number and proportion of elderly persons in the population. The share of population over age 65 is projected to rise from 7.5 percent in 2020 to 14.5 percent in 2040. Yet even as health and longevity have improved greatly, employment rates among older workers have declined. Extension of the working life would benefit older persons by augmenting income security and providing a sense of fulfillment. It would benefit society at large by mitigating worker shortages an [...]
2023-12-14
- The insured unemployment rate : Those receiving vs. those eligible for unemployment insurance benefits
by ? in FRED blog, 2023-12-14 14:00:00 UTCBackground The overall unemployment rate is a key macroeconomic indicator that economists, policymakers, and the media follow closely. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates it from a monthly survey of households that tallies the number of those not employed but looking for work divided by the total labor force, which itself is the sum of employed workers plus the number of those not employed but looking for work. A separate unemployment measure that receives less attention is the insured unemployment rate : It is the number of workers currently claiming unemployment insurance benefits rel [...]
2023-11-26
- Ãconomie numérique : le bilan comptable reflète mal la valeur économique des entreprises
by The Conversation in Contrepoints, 2023-11-26 03:30:04 UTCAuteur : Anne Jeny, Professor, Accounting Department, IÉSEG School of Management Les processus de création de valeur ont connu d’importantes évolutions ces dernières années. Comparons par exemple Google (Alphabet), un étendard de la nouvelle économie et une entreprise relevant du secteur industriel traditionnel, comme le constructeur automobile General Motors. La réussite de Google apparaît au travers de sa capitalisation boursière, celle-ci atteignant 1148 milliards de dollars pour environ 190 234 salariés fin 2022. General Motors affiche pour sa part une capitalisation boursière vingt fois [...]
2023-11-15
- WeInflate, WeMalinvest, WeWork
by Tyler Durden in Zero Hedge, 2023-11-15 03:55:00 UTCWeInflate, WeMalinvest, WeWork Authored by Peter C. Earle via the American Institute for Economic Research , The bankruptcy filing of WeWork Inc. on November 6, 2023 came with neither a whimper nor a bang, but with a laconic shrug . Although the company has been around for 13 years, it has been defined more by successive flirtations with demise and unseemly corporate revelations than by innovative ideas for the second half of its life. Few were surprised when the latest, and possibly not the final, chapter arrived. While some stories are better told starting at the end, the We [...]
2023-10-22
- Weekend reading links
by noreply@blogger.com (Urbanomics) in Urbanomics, 2023-10-22 04:36:00 UTC1. In terms of annualised returns for several time periods, the Indian stock market tops , slightly superior to even the S&P 500. While there's no doubt that for investors looking at the next decade and more, India stands at the pole position in terms of economic prospects. A large economy with relatively stable macroeconomic policies and domestic consumption being the predominant growth driver means that it's well placed to grow. But the big worry is the nature of its growth. In particular, the widening inequality and the relatively low growth in incomes for the vast majority is the problem [...]
2023-10-06
- Paved with Unintended Consequences
by ? in Econlog, 2023-10-06 12:00:27 UTCEconomists, especially those of us who criticize government interventionist policies, often point to bad unintended consequences that many of these policies lead to. Sometimes people say that we delight in pointing to such policies, but that verb certainly doesn’t apply to my attitude. There is typically nothing delightful at all in these consequences, many of them tragic. In this piece, I’ll cover six cases, but they’re a tiny fraction of the cases that exist and even a tiny fraction of the cases I know. We need to distinguish between unintended and unpredicted consequences. Many unintended [...]
2023-09-20
- Warum Biden gröÃere Chancen auf eine Wiederwahl hat, als viele denken
by ? in Makronom, 2023-09-20 21:58:56 UTCDie Amerikaner sehen sowohl die wirtschaftliche Lage als auch die Arbeit von Präsident Joe Biden sehr kritisch. Dennoch dürften die Demokraten mehr Grund für Optimismus haben, als die jüngsten Umfragen vermuten lassen. [...]
2023-09-14
- Why does womenâs employment change with the seasons? : An answer from the NBER
by ? in FRED blog, 2023-09-14 13:00:00 UTCSummer is ending. As the new school year gears up, some areas of economic activity will get seasonal boosts—such as increases in retail sales of office supplies as incoming students and their families buy what they need for the classroom. Female employment also picks up at this time of year. Recent research on labor markets finds that the childcare services provided by formal schooling drive this increase in employment. The FRED graph above replicates Figure 1 in a related piece of research: the NBER Working Paper, “ The Summer Drop in Female Employment ,” by Brendan Price and Melanie Wasserm [...]
2023-09-05
- Gender income disparity in the USA
by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2023-09-05 20:26:00 UTCThis paper "Gender income disparity in the USA: analysis and dynamic modelling" is also of interest Abstract We analyze and develop a quantitative model describing the evolution of personal income distribution (PID) for males and females in the U.S. between 1930 and 2014. The overall microeconomic model, which we introduced ten years ago, accurately predicts the change in mean income as a function of age as well as the dependence on age of the portion of people distributed according to the Pareto law. As a result, we have precisely described the change in the Gini ratio since the start of inc [...]
- Race and gender income inequality in the USA: black women vs. white men
by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2023-09-05 20:23:00 UTCAlmost every day, I have a request to publish this paper " Race and gender income inequality in the USA: black women vs. white men" � in medical and social journals. Do not understand the reason for such an interest.�� Abstract Income inequality between different races in the U.S. is especially large. This difference is even larger when gender is involved. In a complementary study, we have developed a dynamic microeconomic model accurately describing the evolution of male and female incomes since 1930. Here, we extend our analysis and model the disparity between the black and white population [...]
2023-08-31
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The High Costs of Biden's Price-Controlled Drugs
by Ronald Bailey in Hit & Run blog, 2023-08-31 21:09:02 UTCGovernment-imposed price controls on goods and services always lead to shortages. For example, economic research has consistently shown that rent control results in less new housing construction . The Biden administration's imposition of price caps on prescription drugs under the provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will result in much the same thing: fewer new cures developed. The IRA gives the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) the [...]
- Neo-kaleckianos e Historia Económica. ¿Qué sabemos sobre los âregÃmenes de crecimientoâ?
by HenryW in Pasado y Presente de la Economia Mundial, 2023-08-31 19:15:53 UTCPablo Marmissolle (Universidad de la República, Uruguay) Pablo Marmissolle es docente de Historia Económica Mundial y Desarrollo Económico del Uruguay en la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración (FCEA) de la Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay, así como investigador en Historia Económica del Instituto de Economía (IECON) de esa misma Facultad. Es Licenciado y Magíster en Economía por la UdelaR y estudiante de Doctorado en Historia Económica en la Universidad de Valencia, España. RESUMEN. Los modelos neo-kaleckianos basados en el trabajo de Bhaduri & Marglin ( [...]
2023-08-24
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Why We Can't Have Nice Things: Bootleggers, Baptists, and Ballots
by Eric Boehm in Hit & Run blog, 2023-08-24 17:00:47 UTCArkansas has some of the strangest liquor laws in the country—or at least the most politically contentious. Unlike a lot of other places, the state allows counties to hold referendums to decide whether they will allow the retail sale of alcohol. That is, whether they will be "wet" or "dry." And when those elections take place, it's often existing liquor stores—the very businesses that earn money by selling booze—that campaign the hardest to keep county-lev [...]
2023-08-14
- AI is going to eliminate way more jobs than anyone realizes
by insider@insider.com (Emil Skandul) in Business Insider, 2023-08-14 10:00:02 UTCThe AI revolution is about the crash into the global economy and upend millions of jobs. Arantza Pena Popo/Insider A tidal wave is about to crash into the global economy. The rise of artificial intelligence has captured our imagination for decades, in whimsical movies and sober academic texts. Despite this speculation, the emergence of public, easy-to-use AI tools over the past year has been a jolt, like the future arrived years ahead of schedule. Now this long-expected, all-too-sudden technological revolution is ready to upend the economy. A March Goldman Sachs report found over 300 million [...]
2023-07-31
- The monetary multiplier and bank reserves
by ? in FRED blog, 2023-07-31 13:00:00 UTCThe FRED graph above shows two different measures of money between 2005 and 2010: The red line tracks M2, which includes cash, checking deposits, and other short-term deposits. The green line tracks the monetary base, or M0, which includes only cash and bank reserves. The ratio of M2 to M0 (blue line) is often referred to as the “money multiplier,” a measure that describes how the supply of private money (deposits) responds to the monetary base: As banks accumulate excess reserves in their account, they expand their deposits and lending activities. Between December 2007 and January 2009, M2 [...]
2023-07-27
- El costo de ser un nativo digital: efectos del acceso a internet en el desarrollo infantil
by Natalia Nollenberger in Razones y personas: repensando Uruguay, 2023-07-27 22:37:00 UTCPor Karina Colombo y Elisa Failache En los últimos años, la exposición a dispositivos conectados a Internet de alta velocidad ha aumentado considerablemente a nivel mundial. [1] Las tecnologías son cada vez más comunes en nuestro día a día y el tiempo que pasamos conectados es cada vez mayor. Este fenómeno no es específico de las personas adultas, niños y niñas usan pantallas de forma cada vez más frecuente desde muy pequeños/as. [2] Uruguay no es ajeno a esta situación. Según datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Desarrollo Infantil y Salud del 2018, un 13% de niños/as menores de 12 meses mira a [...]
2023-07-26
- Are the Benefits of Electrification Realized Only in the Long Run? Evidence from Rural India
by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2023-07-26 06:42:00 UTCI have a new working paper coauthored with my master's student Suryadeepto Nag on the impact of rural electrification in India. Surya did his master's at IISER in Pune with me as his supervisor. He visited Canberra over the last Southern Summer. The effect of providing households with access to electricity has been a popular research topic. It's still not clear how large the benefits of such interventions are. Is electricity access an investment that generates growth? Or is it more of a consumption good that growing economies can afford? Researchers have used traditional econometric methods [...]
2023-07-19
- Fiscal conservatism, economic radicalism
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-07-19 12:19:03 UTCSir Keir Starmer has ruled out significant rises in public spending under a Labour government. He's partly right. What his supporters and many critics fail to appreciate, however, is that a tight fiscal stance is wholly consistent with some very left-wing policies. First, why is he partly right? The answer has nothing to do with "iron-clad fiscal rules". Such talk is merely to appease the nonces, imbeciles and billionaires' gimps in the media. Instead, Labour's problem is that we are close to effective full employment; certainly, there are very few doctors or builders out of work. This means [...]
2023-07-06
- Trends in the construction of multifamily housing : The missing middle
by ? in FRED blog, 2023-07-06 13:00:00 UTCThe FRED Blog has discussed the relationship between single-family housing starts and completions and also how changes in overall housing market prices are measured . Today we build on the topic of housing by comparing trends in the type of residential constructions erected. The FRED graph above shows data from the US Census and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) on the number of new, privately owned, completed housing units since 1968. There are three size types: single-family buildings (the blue area), buildings with 2 to 4 separate dwellings (the red area), and buildi [...]
- There is no recession threat in the USA due to immigration
by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2023-07-06 09:32:00 UTCImmigration saves the US as it is able to mechanically increase real GDP just by population growth. The labor force growth drives inflation up as it was in the late 1960s and 1970s (women changed the rate of participation in labor force from ~50% to 80-90% just within one decade). The Fed has the only tool to put the rate of price inflation down - increase the overnight rate. As the real GDP has been growing in the previous couple of years mainly due to mechanical population increase (the population growth rate is back to 1.5% per year as in the 1990s) , there overnight rate does not have the [...]
2023-07-03
- Geopolitical Fragmentation, Regional Cooperation, and Prospects for ASEAN Trade and Value Chains
by mplummer@jhubc.it (Michael Plummer) in Asia Economics Blog, 2023-07-03 14:10:46 UTCIntroduction ASEAN countries are characterized by considerable diversity but share an outward-oriented development strategy. While intra-regional economic cooperation over the past two decades has been important, global, not regional, interaction has been the key to ASEAN’s success story. Hence, the strong policy headwinds facing globalization in the post-Covid period threaten continued growth and prosperity in the region. Proposals in major markets to protect domestic industries by raising obstacles to trade vary from sectoral protection to more comprehensive “geopolitical” or “geoeconomic” [...]
2023-07-02
- Quotation of the Dayâ¦
by Don Boudreaux in Cafe Hayek, 2023-07-02 08:30:00 UTC(Don Boudreaux) Tweet … is from page 85 of University of Connecticut economist Richard Langlois’s monumental 2023 study, The Corporation and the Twentieth Century (original emphasis; footnotes deleted; links added): The laissez-faire economists [around the turn of the 20th century], and often even their opponents, did not think in terms of an efficient equilibrium of prices, quantities, and number of firms; rather, following Adam Smith, they had a dynamic view of competition as active striving . Active competition took place along many margins, including both innovation and entry. The resu [...]
2023-07-01
- Cyberattaques dans les hôpitaux, universités, administrations⦠Comment mieux résister ?
by The Conversation in Contrepoints, 2023-07-01 02:40:00 UTCPar Mohammed Chergui-Darif et Bruno Tiberghien. Collectivités territoriales, administrations publiques, hôpitaux , écoles et universités , aucune de ces organisations publiques n’est à l’abri des cyberattaques , que la Défense française définit comme : « (toute) action volontaire, offensive et malveillante, menée au travers du cyberespace et destinée à provoquer un dommage (en disponibilité, intégrité ou confidentialité) aux informations ou aux systèmes qui les traitent, pouvant ainsi nuire aux activités dont ils sont le support. » Selon l’Agence de l’Union européenne pour la cybersécurité [...]
2023-06-29
- FRED maps of BEA regions : Grouping state-level economic activity
by ? in FRED blog, 2023-06-29 13:00:00 UTCMore than half of the data in FRED can be displayed in choropleth maps, which is a type of data visualization where geographical areas are colored differently according to the range of their data values. The contours of the geographical areas in FRED maps represent political and statistical boundaries. Political boundaries shape the counties, states, and nations we’re familiar with. But what is a statistical boundary? Who draws them? How did those boundaries come to be? Statistical boundaries are groupings of smaller geographies, such as counties, or states, that are drawn by data collection [...]
2023-06-27
- Jeux Olympiques et Paralympiques 2024 : quelles seront vraiment les retombées pour Paris ?
by The Conversation in Contrepoints, 2023-06-27 02:45:33 UTCPar Hugo Bourbillères . Les Jeux Olympiques et Paralympiques 2024 approchent pour Paris , et avec eux leurs lots de controverses qui abondent une tendance claire : la raréfaction des candidatures pour l’accueil des Jeux ces dernières années. Depuis 1997, plus de deux tiers des référendums voient le « non » l’emporter. Les contestataires dénoncent un gaspillage des deniers publics pour des projets qui n’auraient pas suffisamment d’utilité sociale. Pour contrer cela, le choix de candidater à un grand événement sportif international (GESI) se justifie de plus en plus par la promesse d’un hérita [...]
2023-06-13
- Macro Policy Update, 2022
by calla.wiemer@acaes.us (Calla Wiemer) in Asia Economics Blog, 2023-06-13 15:00:32 UTCAgainst the blow of the pandemic, governments worldwide undertook expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. But by 2022, pressure was on to retrench as inflation reared up and government debt-to-GDP ratios mounted. This post continues a series that applies the framework developed in Macroeconomics for Emerging East Asia (Cambridge University Press, 2022; RePEc ) to analyzing monetary and fiscal policy. The series began with a trilogy of posts on the pandemic shock of 2020 and associated fiscal and monetary policy responses. There followed a post for 2021 in which the pandemic continued to fig [...]
2023-05-30
- Wie Einkommen und Einkommensungleichheit die Gesundheit beeinflussen
by ? in Makronom, 2023-05-30 10:57:41 UTCPersonen mit niedrigem sozioökonomischen Status weisen einen schlechteren allgemeinen Gesundheitszustand, ein erhöhtes Risiko für chronische Erkrankungen sowie eine geringere Lebenserwartung auf. Dabei spielt sowohl das eigene Einkommen als auch der Grad ö [...]
2023-05-29
- How to Quench the American Westâs Thirst
by Jeffrey Frankel in Project Syndicate, 2023-05-29 15:48:20 UTCCAMBRIDGE – A megadrought – the worst in 1,200 years – has been ravaging the American West for two decades, fueling wildfires and exacerbating the region’s chronic water shortages. As global temperatures continue to rise, severe droughts are becoming more frequent and intense – a trend not limited to the United States. Southern Europe , East and North Africa, Australia, and certain parts of Asia and Latin America are also grappling with extreme water scarcity. On May 22, seven western US states reached a historic deal to reduce water extraction from the drought-stricken Colorado River. Ariz [...]
2023-05-28
- No title
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-28 21:05:40 UTC2022: A SUMMARY OF FRAMED FIELD EXPERIMENTS ON FIELDEXPERIMENTS.COM: THE WHO’S, WHAT’S, WHERE’S, AND WHEN’S By: John List Abstract: In 2019 I put together a summary of data from my field experiments website that pertained to framed field experiments. Several people have asked me if I have an update. In this document I update all figures and numbers to show the details for 2022. I also include the description from the 2019 paper below with appropriate additions Date: 2023 URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:framed:00768&r=ltv [...]
- No title
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-28 21:01:36 UTCThe Effect of Education Policy on Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective By: Costas Meghir (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Marten Palme (Stockholm University); Marieke Schnabel (University College London) Abstract: We study the intergenerational effect of education policy on crime. We use Swedish administrative data that links outcomes across generations with crime records and we show that the comprehensive school reform, gradually implemented between 1949 and 1962, reduced conviction rates both for the generation directly affected by the reform and for their sons. The reduction [...]
- No title
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-28 20:59:46 UTCAdvances in the Economic Theory of Cultural Transmission By: Alberto Bisin; Thierry Verdier Abstract: In this paper we survey recent advances in the economic theory of cultural transmission. We highlight three main themes on which the literature has made great progress in the last ten years: the domain of traits subject to cultural transmission, the micro-foundations for the technology of transmission, and feedback effects between culture, institutions, and various socio-economic environments. We conclude suggesting interesting areas for future research. JEL: O10 P16 P48 URL: http://d.r [...]
- No title
by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-28 20:58:02 UTCWorking from Home Around the World By: Aksoy, Cevat Giray (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Barrero, Jose Maria (Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México Business School); Bloom, Nicholas (Stanford University); Davis, Steven J. (University of Chicago); Dolls, Mathias (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Zarate, Pablo (Princeton University) Abstract: The pandemic triggered a large, lasting shift to work from home (WFH). To study this shift, we survey full-time workers who finished primary school in 27 countries as of mid 2021 and early 2022. Our cross-country comparis [...]
2023-05-23
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:18:44 UTCThe Labour Market Returns to Sleep By: Joan Costa-Font (LSE – London School of Economics and Political Science, IZA – Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit – Institute of Labor Economics, CESifo – Center for Economic Studies and Ifo for Economic Research – CESifo Group Munich); Sarah Fleche (CES – Centre d’économie de la Sorbonne – UP1 – Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne – CNRS – Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 – Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CEP – LSE – Centre for Economic Performance – LSE – London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE – London S [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:16:40 UTCWomen’s transitions in the labour market as a result of childbearing: the challenges of formal sector employment in Indonesia By: Lisa Cameron (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Diana Contreras Suarez (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Yi-Ping Tseng (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne) Abstract: Although it is well established that women’s labour force participation drops markedly with marriage and childbearing, surprisingly little i [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:15:56 UTCAir pollution: a review of its economic effects and policies to mitigate them By: Laura Hospido (Banco de España, CEMFI and IZA); Carlos Sanz (Banco de España and CEMFI); Ernesto Villanueva (Banco de España) Abstract: Air pollution is an increasing cause of concern among the scientific community, policymakers and the general public. This interest has led to a sharp increase in the number of scientific papers on air pollution. This paper provides a summary of the most prominent recent economic literature on the effects of air pollution, the main policy lessons that can be drawn from it, [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:14:01 UTCDoes School Choice Increase Crime? By: Andrew Bibler; Stephen B. Billings; Stephen Ross Abstract: School choice lotteries are an important tool for allocating access to high-quality and oversubscribed public schools. While prior evidence suggests that winning a school lottery decreases adult criminality, there is little evidence for how school choice lotteries impact non-lottery students who are left behind at their neighborhood school. We leverage variation in actual lottery winners conditional on expected lottery winners to link the displacement of middle school peers to adult crimina [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:13:12 UTCPaying Moms to Stay Home: Short and Long Run Effects on Parents and Children By: Jonathan Gruber; Tuomas Kosonen; Kristiina Huttunen Abstract: We study the impacts of a policy designed to reward mothers who stay at home rather than join the labor force when their children are under age three. We use regional and over time variation to show that the Finnish Home Care Allowance (HCA) decreases maternal employment in both the short and long term. The effects are large enough for the existence of home care benefit system to explain the higher short-term child penalty in Finland than compara [...]
2023-05-16
- What the people want
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-05-16 08:14:09 UTCYears ago, before the Great Forgetting , economists knew that people's preferences often did not originate with themselves but were instead cultivated by producers themselves. Inspired by Vance Packard's best-selling 1957 book, The Hidden Persuaders , J.K. Galbraith wrote: Production fills only a void that it has itself created...That wants are in fact the fruit of production wll now be denied by few serious scholars...The even more direct link between production and wants is provided by the institutions of modern advertising and salesmanship. These cannto be reconciled with the notion of ind [...]
2023-05-10
- Winners and Losers in the AI Arms Race
by Barry Eichengreen in Project Syndicate, 2023-05-10 08:45:30 UTCBERKELEY – The first rule of forecasting, the financial journalist Jane Bryant Quinn once observed , is this: give them a forecast or give them a date; just never give them both. So, here’s a not very bold forecast: Generative artificial-intelligence models like ChatGPT will revolutionize the economy. We just can’t say when. Nor can we say where. Among the key questions lost amid the flurry of commentary on generative AI is which countries will benefit, and which will not. Will the United States, a first mover in this domain, grow even more dominant economically? Will developing countri [...]
2023-05-01
- Constructing forward interest rates in FRED
by ? in FRED blog, 2023-05-01 13:00:00 UTCA forward interest rate is a rate that pertains to a future loan and/or bond purchase. A forward transaction can be arranged in an over-the-counter market with a financial institution, or it can be constructed from existing fixed income instruments. A forward rate contract has at least two elements: the contract start and length. For example, a forward loan contract might commence 2 years in the future and last for 6 months. Such a contract might be termed a 6-month contract, 2 years ahead. Interest rate contracts (bonds or loans) that start immediately (or nearly so) are called spot market c [...]
2023-04-25
- Decarbonization Requires New Fiscal Rules
by Max Krahé in Project Syndicate, 2023-04-25 11:45:08 UTCBERLIN – Climate policy is at a critical juncture . The world’s leading scientists see a rapidly closing window to avoid the worst ravages of global warming. With the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) last year, the United States has finally taken meaningful domestic action to reduce emissions. Now Europe is scrambling to respond. But the narrowly technical approach prevailing in the European Union – and particularly in Germany, its biggest member state – is steering Europe toward fiscal shoals and social turmoil. To chart a safer, more sustainable course, climate policy must b [...]
- Are startups engaging in innovation in India?
by Anurodh in Ajay Shah's blog, 2023-04-25 08:46:00 UTCby Aneesha Chitgupi, Karthik Suresh and Diya Uday . Introduction What is a startup? The academic literature takes a broad view --- startups: have a high growth rate (Moogk 2012), have a lower number of employees (Beck et al. 2008), are at the early stage of the life cycle of a firm (Eisenmann 2013, Stevenson and Jarillo 1990), and are drivers of innovation (Cohen and Klepper, 1996). However, governments across the world focus on the link between startups and innovation. In the Netherlands , a startup is defined as "a business that translates an innovative idea into a scalable and generic [...]
2023-04-15
- When clever people do stupid things
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-04-15 09:09:47 UTCSimon Wren Lewis asks : There is no doubt that Lawson was far better qualified than many other Chancellors, and also that he was clever, so why did he get these major judgements wrong? It's a good question because it broadens. Clever people gave us the poll tax, the invasion of Iraq, financial crisis and collapses of Silicon Valley and Credit Suisse. So why do they so often get it wrong. There are many reasons. One, which Simon attributes to Lawson, is arrogance. In ignoring his advisors, Lawson did not go as far as Kwasi Kwarteng (double first, PhD and Browne medal) who sacked one of his. [...]
2023-04-13
- A Bank Murder Mystery
by Barry Eichengreen in Project Syndicate, 2023-04-13 15:33:42 UTCBERKELEY – When a banking crisis erupted in early March, pundits rushed to the battlements, or at least to their studies, to hammer out columns assigning the blame. Unsurprisingly, those early assessments, based on still-incomplete information, often contradicted one another. It is worth recalling Walter Raleigh’s dictum: those who follow too close on the heels of history risk getting kicked in the teeth. A month later, the narrative has coalesced around four aspects, or interpretations, of the crisis. The first is what might be called the incompetent-management view. Silicon Valley Bank’s [...]
2023-04-05
- I ran Sarah Jacobson's "Ore Money Ore Problems" resource extraction game in class yesterday @SarahJacobsonEc
by John Whitehead in Environmental Economics, 2023-04-05 08:15:00 UTCHere is the abstract from the paper which is forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Education: Economic theories of the exploitation of depletable natural resources are built around a core model of intertemporal profit maximization that predicts that (barring unforeseen shocks) scarcity crises will not arise because forward looking resource owners will smooth extraction over time. The model that provides this result can seem opaque to students, but its intuition can be more easily grasped from experience. This paper shares a game that provides that experience. Participants play the role of mi [...]
2023-04-04
- Legal and finance jobs are among the most at risk from AI, while construction and trade jobs face minimal influence, studies suggest
by bnolan@insider.com (Beatrice Nolan) in Business Insider, 2023-04-04 10:33:58 UTCGenerative AI could lead to the widespread automation of jobs, new research found. sorbetto/Getty Images Generative AI could lead to the widespread automation of jobs, new research found. But blue-collar roles in manufacturing and construction face minimal influence, data indicates. Here's why some industries will likely be more affected than others by the technology. Rapid advances in artificial intelligence are stoking employee concerns about the automation of jobs. Generative AI , a type of AI capable of generating text and other content in response to user prompts, has exploded in populari [...]
- La France face à lâabîme : la dette publique dépasse les 3000 milliards dâeuros
by Philippe Lacoude in Contrepoints, 2023-04-04 03:15:08 UTCLa France a finalement atteint 3000 milliards d’euros de dette publique pour un produit intérieur brut (PIB) de seulement 2643 milliards d’euros. En 2014, je déplorais le passage aux 2000 milliards d’euros de dettes, et en 2018 le franchissement de la barre symbolique de 100 % du PIB. Alors qu’il avait fallu 11 ans pour passer de 1000 à 2000 milliards d’euros de dettes publiques, il n’aura donc fallu que 8 ans pour passer de 2000 à 3000 milliards d’euros. La vitesse à laquelle le Titanic français prend l’eau s’accélère donc. Peut-on continuer longtemps à ce rythme effréné ? Gérer la dette [...]
2023-03-29
- Announcements
by Anurodh in Ajay Shah's blog, 2023-03-29 05:06:00 UTCTrustBridge is an organisation working in the area of rule of law in the economy. We engage in academic and policy oriented research and advocacy in the areas of Energy Transition, Financial Markets, Governance in Private Capital, and Government Contracting and Litigation. TrustBridge is looking for full time researchers to work on projects in the area of regulation of financial markets, governance and energy transition. Financial markets The financial markets project involves studying the working of regulators in securities markets, banking and payments, insolvency, and insurance. This incl [...]
2023-03-21
- What the World Bank Can Do About Climate Change
by Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg in Project Syndicate, 2023-03-21 09:21:06 UTCNEW HAVEN – Few institutions have shown as much versatility and adaptability as the World Bank. Initially founded to address global capital-market imperfections after World War II, the institution’s primary mission evolved over time to focus on fighting extreme poverty. But now that the World Bank is welcoming a new president this July, it should adapt again, this time to address climate change. Poverty reduction, of course, should remain a high priority, considering that the COVID-19 pandemic has left many low-income countries in dire straits. But climate change has emerged as an equally i [...]
2023-03-20
- Fifty Years of Floating Currencies
by Jeffrey Frankel in Project Syndicate, 2023-03-20 13:58:41 UTCCAMBRIDGE – Fifty years ago this month, in March 1973, the Bretton Woods arrangement of fixed exchange rates was abandoned, and the world’s major currencies – including the US dollar, pound, yen, and Deutsche Mark – were allowed to float. At the time, the system’s demise was generally considered a policy failure. But the shift from fixed to flexible exchange rates was probably inevitable. The international monetary system that was designed at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in 1944, helped lay the economic foundation for the postwar international order. Over the next three decades, known in F [...]
2023-03-13
- Technical regress
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-03-13 09:05:07 UTCThere's a fascinating TV series on now about modern social and economic history. I refer of course to the re-runs of Brookside on STV Player. One thing this shows is how many opportunities there in the 80s were for workers to top up their wages by stealing from their employers, either by putting their hands in the till or by nicking stuff to sell to their friends. The closure of such opportunities thanks in part to technical change might help explain increased inequality and the Easterlin paradox, as I discussed here . But there's something else. In one episode the post arrives at breakfast t [...]
2023-03-06
- 6 consejos para ascender en el trabajo, según la ciencia
by José Andrés GarcÃa in Elblogsalmon, 2023-03-06 10:00:30 UTCCobrar más es la manera más efectiva de mejorar nuestra economía doméstica. Los trucos de ahorro funcionan, pero no cambiarán nada radicalmente a menos que los ingresos aumenten. Por eso, aunque también es cierto que cuanto más ganas, más gastas , quiero detallar algunos factores que, según los datos, nos ayudarán a ascender en el trabajo y que nos paguen más. Antes de nada, comentar que ya vimos varios consejos polémicos para promocionar en nuestro empleo. Funcionan y deberíamos conocerlos , nos gusten o no. [...]
2023-03-05
- If You Say âConvenience Yieldâ I Will Not Take You (or Your Research) Seriously
by cpirrong in Streetwise Professor, 2023-03-05 22:57:06 UTCI have a relatively simple way to filter out serious research on commodity prices from the not-so-serious. If you rely on “convenience yield” I will not take you seriously. Alas, based on this filter, the bulk of commodities research is unserious. For the uninitiated (consider yourself lucky!), convenience yield is an attempt to explain that commodity futures prices are typically at less than “full carry”, i.e ., that futures prices are below the spot price plus the cost of carrying inventory (financing plus physical storage costs). Furthermore, convenience yield is invoked to explain [...]
- Health impact of increasing access to physicians
by Jason Shafrin in Healthcare Economist, 2023-03-05 20:49:16 UTCOut recently is an interesting AEA paper by Okeke 2023 , who examines a policy experiment by the Nigerian government that aimed determine whether expand access to physicians improved health outcomes. In this experiment, some communities were randomly selected to receive a new doctor. These doctors were posted to the local public health center. Prior to their arrival, health care was provided by midlevel health-care providers (MLP). To separate the effect of (ostensibly higher) quality from that of quantity, another group of communities was provided with an additional midlevel provider. [...]
2023-03-03
- Now we just wait for the comment from Desvousges, Mathews and Train
by John Whitehead in Environmental Economics, 2023-03-03 10:10:00 UTCYesterday I spent 2 hours revising a final version of this paper so that we can say it is "forthcoming" in Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy . Here is Figure 1: [...]
2023-03-01
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-03-01 10:35:12 UTCLabor market insurance policies in the XXI century By: Boeri, Tito; Cahuc, Pierre Abstract: The recovery from the Covid-19 crisis will force governments to accelerate transformation in their menu of labor market policy tools. The crisis was a stress test for unemployment insurance schemes as it involved a sudden and unexpected shutdown of a very large set of activities. This forced countries to introduce, often from scratch, income support schemes for workers under new forms of employment, and the self-employed. There was also a considerable expansion of short-time work schemes notably tow [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-03-01 10:34:26 UTC2022: A SUMMARY OF ARTEFACTUAL FIELD EXPERIMENTS ON FIELDEXPERIMENTS.COM: THE WHO’S, WHAT’S, WHERE’S, AND WHEN’S By: John List Abstract: 2022 Summary of Artefactual Experiments Date: 2023 URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:artefa:00767&r=ltv [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-03-01 10:32:26 UTCWhat makes a satisfying life? Prediction and interpretation with machine-learning algorithms By: Clark, Andrew E.; D’Ambrosio, Conchita; Gentile, Niccoló; Tkatchenko, Alexandre Abstract: Machine Learning (ML) methods are increasingly being used across a variety of fields and have led to the discovery of intricate relationships between variables. We here apply ML methods to predict and interpret life satisfaction using data from the UK British Cohort Study. We discuss the application of first Penalized Linear Models and then one non-linear method, Random Forests. We present two key model [...]
2023-02-27
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-02-27 18:52:29 UTCExplaining Happiness Trends in Europe By: Easterlin, Richard A. (University of Southern California); O’Connor, Kelsey J. (STATEC Research – National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) Abstract: In Europe differences among countries in the overall change in happiness since the early 1980s have been due chiefly to the generosity of welfare state programs— increasing happiness going with increasing generosity and declining happiness with declining generosity. This is the principal conclusion from a time series study of ten Northern, Western, and Southern European countries with [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-02-27 18:50:57 UTCThe Adventure of Running Experiments with Teenagers By: Antonio Alfonso-Costillo (Universidad Loyola); Pablo Brañas-Garza (Universidad Loyola); Diego Jorrat (Universidad Loyola); Pablo Lomas (Universidad Loyola); Benjamin Prissé (Universidad Loyola); Mónica Vasco (Universidad Loyola) Abstract: Economists are increasingly interested in how to conduct experiments with teenagers. This paper evaluates whether different methodological factors impact the answers of teenagers to standard experimental tasks on measuring time preferences, risk preferences, cognitive abilities and financial abili [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-02-27 18:49:49 UTCPersecution and Escape By: Sascha O. Becker (Monash University and University of Warwick); Volker Lindenthal (LMU Munich); Sharun Mukand (University of Warwick); Fabian Waldinger (LMU Munich) Abstract: We study the role of professional networks in facilitating emigration of Jewish academics dismissed from their positions by the Nazi government. We use individual-level exogenous variation in the timing of dismissals to estimate causal effects. Academics with more ties to early émigrés (emigrated 1933-1934) were more likely to emigrate. Early émigrés functioned as “bridging nodes” that fa [...]