by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2024 07:12:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2024 01:35:00 PM

Two key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.  This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal pattern.  This made for larger swings in the seasonal factor during the housing bust.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through March 2024). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the bubble burst.

The seasonal swings declined following the bust, however the pandemic price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.

The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern - and distressed sales happened all year.   

The swings in the seasonal factors were decreasing following the bust but have increased again recently - this time without a surge in distressed sales.

If we use the seasonal factors from 2018 and 2019, house prices were up 0.8% in Q1 (compared to the current factors with prices up 1.2% in Q1).

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2024 09:50:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.5% year-over-year in March; FHFA: House Prices Increased 0.1% in March, up 6.6% YoY

Excerpt:

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3-month average of January, February and March closing prices). March closing prices include some contracts signed in November, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.30%. This was the fourteenth consecutive MoM increase, but a smaller MoM increase than the previous two months.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 15 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 8.2% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 6.0% from the peak, Portland down 4.0%, and Phoenix is down 3.1%.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2024 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3-month average of January, February and March closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Hits New All-Time High in March 2024

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.5% annual gain for March, the same increase as the previous month. The 10- City Composite saw an increase of 8.2%, up from a 8.1% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a slight year-over-year increase to 7.4%, up from a 7.3% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities this month with an 11.1% increase in March, followed by New York and Cleveland, with increases of 9.2% and 8.8%, respectively. Portland, which still holds the lowest rank after reporting three consecutive months of the smallest year-over-year growth, posted the same 2.2% annual increase in March as the previous month.
...
The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite all continued their upward trend from last month, showing pre-seasonality adjustment increases of 1.3%, 1.6% and 1.6%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0. 3%, while the 20-City and the 10-City Composite both reported month-over-month increases of 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

“This month’s report boasts another all-time high,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “We’ve witnessed records repeatedly break in both stock and housing markets over the past year. Our National Index has reached new highs in six of the last 12 months. During that time, we’ve seen record stock market performance, with the S&P 500 hitting fresh all-time highs for 35 trading days in the past year.

“San Diego stands out with an impressive 11.1% annual gain, followed closely by New York, Cleveland, and Los Angeles, indicating a strong demand for urban markets."
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.5% in March (SA).  The Composite 20 index was up 0.3% (SA) in March.

The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in March.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA was up 8.2% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA was up 7.4% year-over-year.

The National index SA was up 6.5% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were close to expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2024 06:10:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of May 26, 2024

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March.  The consensus is for the Case-Shiller National Index to increase 6.8% YoY, up from 6.4% YoY in February.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for March. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 11 and DOW futures are up 51 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $78.38 per barrel and Brent at $82.79 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $72, and Brent was at $76 - so WTI oil prices are up about 9% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.55 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.55 per gallon, so gasoline prices are unchanged year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2024 09:21:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 20.3% from the February bottom, and at the highest level since August 2020.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of May 24th, inventory was at 595 thousand (7-day average), compared to 578 thousand the prior week.   

Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. 

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up 84% from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 37.0% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 36.0%), and down 36.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 36.4%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2024 08:21:00 AM

The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

This data is as of May 24th.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA (Blue).

The red line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.

Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - is tracking at about 112% of pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2024 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• New Home Sales Decrease to 634,000 Annual Rate in April

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.14 million SAAR in April

• Watch Months-of-Supply!

• Single Family Built-for-Rent Up 20% Year-over-year in Q1

• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in April; California Home Sales Up 4.4% YoY in April

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2024 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q1 GDP, March Case-Shiller house prices, and Personal Income and Outlays for April.

For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, May 27th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day.

----- Tuesday, May 28th -----
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March.  The consensus is for the Case-Shiller National Index to increase 6.8% YoY, up from 6.4% YoY in February.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

----- Wednesday, May 29th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, May 30th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 218 thousand initial claims, up from 215 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2023 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.2% annualized in Q1, down from the advance estimate of 1.6%.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 0.6% decrease in the index.

----- Friday, May 31st -----
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2024. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.7% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.8% YoY.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May.

by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 07:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations, however hospitalizations were at a pandemic low three weeks ago.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	374	471	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Weekly deaths have declined from the recent peak of 2,561 and are now below the previous pandemic low of 491 last July.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of May 11th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

Nationally, COVID in wastewater is now off more than 90% from the holiday peak at the end of December - and also near the lows of last year - and that suggests weekly deaths will continue to decline.   However, there was a slight uptick recently, especially in the West.