The WSJ April survey is out (responses April 5-9):
GDP Forecasts Brighten Yet Further
10 Replies
Guest Contribution: “On the time-varying impact of China’s bilateral political relations on its trading partners: “doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Jamel Saadaoui (University of Strasbourg).
GDP Nowcasts
GDPNow and NY Fed close.
Wisconsin Economic Forecast Luncheon
Video via WisconsinEye, event on April 10th.
Key Naval Deployments as of 9 April 2024
From FleetTracker:
Trends in German Trade on the Eve of World War I
One shouldn’t just say increasing (or decreasing) trade between potential adversaries predicts something.
Food Inflation Moderates
But convergence in the East North Central portion of the Midwest is slower. Follow up to this post.
What Is Old Is New Again: Channeling Wright Patman
From Bloomberg:
But Jack Manley at JPMorgan Chase argues that the Fed’s current rate range of 5.25% to 5.5% are actually inflationary at this point, and that prices won’t stabilize more until the the central bank starts cutting.
“A lot of what’s going on with inflation today can be linked very closely with the level of interest rates,” Manley said. “You slice and dice inflation and whether you’re looking at the headline number, whether you’re looking at the core number, you’re removing the goods equation — so much of it has to do with the rate environment.”
Apparently, Dr. Stephanie Kelton is an adherent of this view.
Instantaneous CPI, PCE deflator, and PPI Inflation in March
Per Eeckhout (2023), actuals for CPI and PPI, and nowcast for PCE, headline and core.
“Central Banking in a Time of Crisis: An International and Interdisciplinary Perspective”
Wisconsin International Law Journal conference tomorrow (Friday) at the UW Memorial Union.